As we close on 2014, and approach 2015, it doesn’t hurt to take a step back and reflect on what was accomplished and what didn’t work out so well during the year. 2014, without a doubt, showed off some great new tech like Android Wear, and virtual reality is finally showing tangible signs of life. Even Apple decided to finally do something new (for itself) and make a reasonable phone size.
2014, as it’s winding down, is also showing some rather dangerous indications of what might be in store for Android OEMs in 2015. Sharp declines in sales, market stagnation and ridiculous patent warfare may bleed over into the new year, and I doubt anyone is going to come out victorious in the end.
It may seem odd to have a negative tone toward Android OEMs on an Android news site, but I think it’s important to always be mindful of the world around us. Question and debate everything, make smart resolutions quickly and be nimble enough to adapt.
That being said, here are my top 6 reasons why Android original-equipment-manufacturers (OEMs) like Samsung, LG and HTC should not expect a stellar year. This list is my opinion and is definitely not all-inclusive, but as an Android enthusiast, it’s where I see the market headed. It’s my hope that knowing the symptoms can prevent the disease.
#1: Frequency in flagship releases
Sheena Iyengar is a professor at the Columbia Business School and has some insights about a concept known as consumer fatigue. In her book, The Art of Choosing, she talks about how when given too much choice, the consumer will become paralyzed and choose nothing.
That being said, do we really need such superficial improvements in our flagships each year, sometimes twice a year? It is a waste of money for the consumer and it is a waste of money for the manufacturer, and it generates consumer fatigue. You cannot sit there and tell me you can tell the difference between a Snapdragon 801 and an 805.
One theory as to why the Galaxy S5 did not do so hot this year was that it just wasn’t offering anything substantial compared to the Galaxy S4. I agree and I would have rather Samsung saved its money and put it towards making something revolutionary. But they didn’t, so here we all are being forced to make Apple comparisons still.
Another example is display resolution. Biologically speaking, the human eye can only see so much. Yet, here we are coming into 2015, still possessing this mistaken belief that we need a new flagship device simply because the display is so much better technically speaking.
FHD vs. UHD is a touchy and tough argument. Not to mention the debate changes radically when discussing TVs vs. mobile devices. You’re never going to sit face-planted in a TV and, unless you’re doing very well for yourself, you’re probably not going to own an 84-inch TV. At least you shouldn’t, so stop buying out of your price range, but I digress.
You are, however, probably going to shell out some dough for a flagship smart device. Chances are you’re going to hold the device at varying ranges from your eyes, sometimes very close. Stop it — it’s not good for your eyes — plus, be glad, I just saved you $800 USD from buying the so-called next-gen device.
1080p is just fine and you can easily wait until a device sporting a UHD 4K screen with good hardware and battery capacity to back it, plus other new and great features, hits the market. This criteria is not met by any of the current flagships or proposed flagships.
#2: It’s lonely at the top
Apple is old news. Sure, many tech journalists who are either getting on in their years or are still fearful of Apple’s known wrath against negative reporting may say all of the vintage buzzwords with regard to Apple product releases, but the facts remain. Apple is seeing zero upward trending in emerging markets and still dances around the same values in market share in established markets.
And that’s okay for Apple. Apple will be the first to tell you that it likes this role because it only ever intends on releasing a very limited set of products with very expected sets of features that you can safely assume are going to work without a hitch. Apple Maps excluded.
So who’s at the top and what point am I making? Android OEMs are at the summit but this was not always the case in traditional markets.
Samsung’s rise to power in market domination was, and let’s be realistic, based on seeing what Apple was doing and then doing it better. Along the way it tried various things on its own, some of which stunk while other things, like the Note series, created a whole new, popular category in the smart device field, the phablet.
LG, HTC, Sony and others followed suit. Each of these OEMs saw what Samsung was doing, picked what worked great and tried things on their own. When I think of a device that can withstand the elements of our dynamic, wet planet, I think of Sony. When I think of an awesome sound experience from my smartphone, I think of HTC. When I think of OEMs that are very friendly to the hardcore Android modding community, I think of Sony especially, and LG to some extent.
At the source of all of this was Apple, though. That was the target to reach and surpass. But it seems like it’s been almost four years since Apple has done anything remotely industry-leading and that is finally catching up to Samsung and the others.
Samsung, if one were to go off its latest sales reports, has completely dropped the ball in leading. Samsung has emulated Apple almost too well and has fallen into the trap of thinking of itself as a cult that is more obsessed with hearing itself talk than listening to market feedback.
Further reading: Samsung considering management changes as Galaxy S 5 sales fall 40% short
After a disastrous 4th quarter, Samsung is beginning to take the hint. Forcing pay cuts on management, then finally letting go of many management personnel, Samsung claims it is going back to the drawing board with “Project Zero.”
And how often is HTC going to skirt bankruptcy rumors? Its metal unibody design is fantastic. Placing two speakers in the front was brilliant, albeit low-hanging fruit, but that worked for Apple for almost a decade. It still does not appear to be enough.
Xiomi, the world’s third biggest smartphone manufacturer, just recently reported that its net profit for 2014 — hold on to your chairs — was a meager $56 million USD, despite crushing Samsung in the Chinese markets. It could be said that those profits are so slim because it depleted its war-chest in its fight against Samsung, but I am assuming it wasn’t much to begin with.
I am not an engineer nor am I software designer, so I can’t offer many suggestions to remedy the above. What I can say is that the market is showing signs of hunger and Android OEMs look like they are fixing to get chewed up in 2015.
#3: Wasting time on technology, apps, services and lawsuits
Let me start with display technology, seeing as how that’s what was discussed in my second point so much. I hate LCD. I can immediately tell when I’m looking at AMOLED vs. LCD and, for me, LCD looks like it’s been hit with a layer of bleach.
I hate the LCD on my Nexus 5 and I really hate the LCD on my Asus laptop. You can be 1080p all day long, my dear laptop, but when I have to wear sunglasses to view your whites, I’m not pleased. And yes, LG, makers of the Nexus 5, I can see the backlight around the edges of the screen on dark backgrounds.
Some people don’t like AMOLED, mainly because of its color saturation. I sympathize, but I really would rather have that be the problem than white-washed darks.
Not long ago in 2013, Sony began releasing LCD devices utilizing its triluminos technology — their fancy rewording of quantum dot technology — which is basically a somewhat fix for LCD’s backlight issues. So to recap, Sony’s answer to compete better with AMOLED was by going down an, ultimately, dead-end road instead of fixing the color saturation on superior technology. I wonder which direction would’ve saved Sony time and money?
The biggest offender behind redundant apps and services goes to Samsung, though. Does anyone remember ChatON or WatchON, Samsung’s attempts to compete with the plethora of messaging apps and TV-guide apps in existence? Those are getting shut down this month. Did Samsung learn its lesson? Hell no, as it has just recently been reported that it is working on an Apple Pay competitor. Samsung, a word of advice, there’s an Apple Pay competitor that you are already integrated with and you can throw your energy behind: Google Wallet.
Further reading: Samsung’s ChatON messaging service finally bites the dust everywhere but the US
Samsung to permanently discontinue WatchON in several markets
Samsung may be working on an Apple Pay competitor
How many redundant fitness apps, magazine apps, casting apps, etc., do the OEMs need to put out there, especially when a lot of these apps are almost immediately put out to pasture and yet still come pre-loaded as bloatware on our devices? I understand that there is revenue that comes into play with these apps, which is why even Google will be a culprit in this. To Google’s credit, though, it usually maintains support behind its apps or folds them into existing ones to offer more features. Take a page from Google’s playbook, OEMs, buy popular established apps instead of wasting your time and money. Or just don’t compete with them at all, no one likes the kid on the playground who thinks he or she can do everything better.
On the matter of tablets and smartphones, stop making so many variants. Was the Note Edge really necessary? What a considerable waste of resources that must have been. I cringe when I think of the market value of raw materials going up after Samsung decided to produce such a device.
Finally, enough with the lawsuits over patents. Can’t we all just get along? The most recent of which being between Samsung and NVIDIA. Samsung actually sued to get NVIDIA’s graphics chips banned from the US.
Further reading: Samsung files complaint to remove NVIDIA’s graphics chips from the United States
In Samsung’s defense, NVIDIA did start the fight, but what I would really like to know is how much these companies pay to lawyers? Whatever it is, take the majority of those fees and apply it to research and development. Let product strength and unique technology be your defense in court, but perhaps I’m naive when it comes to licensing fees and such.
#4: Android and its many flavors
There is one reason to have non-stop flagship updates: so we can get the latest version of Android without waiting months or years for over-the-air (OTA) updates.
Android being “fractured” used to be a common thing for Apple and its fans to say when discussing Google’s operating system, but the knock began to quiet down when Jelly Bean released. Jelly Bean, by sheer Google-sized force and the dying off of old smart devices, quickly rose to dominance in the Android ecosystem. And, for a time, things were good. Then came Kit Kat and its new features were fairly miniscule enough to not cause many complaints about not having the latest Android OS.
Now there’s the massive Android OS overhaul that is Lollipop and the clamor is back. The Google search results for “lollipop update” calls up a list of enormous size of people wondering when their device will get the newest version. It is probably safe to assume the next flagship device will come out featuring Android 5.0 before you ever get an OTA update.
This is where Apple’s small market share really is of benefit, despite that Apple only cares about its consumers running the last two or so generations of its devices. The products are running its hardware and its software. There’s streamlined coordination at work.
Google, on the other hand, is stuck with herding cats. Like cats, Android OEMs enjoy doing their own thing. Android OEMs have their own skins, their own hardware setups and other vendor-specific changes. Google can talk Android One all it wants with regard to emerging markets, but it’ll be a tough sale to try to bring that to established markets. Google desperately needs to change its cats to cattle and cowboy-up.
Perhaps Project Ara will save Google from this fiasco. I imagine that Ara will have very specific specifications that Google will need to enforce to even have a functioning modular device, so there’s hope yet.
The reason this is an issue for 2015 has to do with how amazing Android 5.0 is. To put it bluntly, Lollipop is awesome. Once consumers get their hands on it, there’s going to be even less incentive for them to upgrade their devices to some new, incremental flagship.
#5: A wild slate appears!
Another year, another slate. Thank the heavens for third-party cases because I am disgusted by each and every smart device’s appearance year after year. I get it: rectangle.
This is probably the single most reason I was thrilled when I heard news of the Moto 360. I know, in your head you’re telling me that the Moto 360 is a watch. Yes, but it is a watch that didn’t compromise the information displayed on its screen even though all of the formatting being pumped through it was designed with rectangles in mind.
And before I get hate-mail from the normally peaceful rectangle-loving crowd, I don’t have anything against the rectangle. Can we all just admit that there could be a little more done with the aesthetics of it?
In my Google+ circles, I have a page that does nothing but post concept art for smart devices. Most are unrealistic, like transparent tablets, but there are some that are so incredible that I have to really wonder who is helming the ships of these OEM companies’ design teams.
Every year, we are introduced to a new smart device that pushes the limit on thin and light. Every year, I have to search for a new case that adds more heft and bulk to that device. I am not a klutz, I had my Nexus 5 for a long time without a case on it and never got close to dropping it, but the physical feedback of a thousand-dollar device that is cardboard-thin and feather-light is just terrible.
I’d like to see companies stop wasting their time competing with who can make the thinnest, lightest smart device that only has the battery power of a toy car. Let’s make it thicker and add in a bigger battery and some design aesthetics, which will increase its weight. Heck, throw some grippy material on the sides for fun.
At least Russian manufacturer Yota is trying something new with its two-sided smartphone. On the front of the device is the traditional display, while on the back is a mirrored display that uses e-ink. It may be a bit gimmicky, but kudos to them for thinking outside of the box.
Anyone remember all of the teaser material that OnePlus put out for its One device? It was supposed to have this radically new design and bring something fresh to the market. Yeah, let’s just say the hype they generated did not live up to my expectations. The device didn’t even match the sketches OnePlus teased us with.
Additionally, let’s end the whole plastic vs. metal debate. Plastic has never bothered me. I loved the design on my Samsung Epic 4G Touch and it was a device I really hated having in a case. I gag in my mouth every time I see the word “premium” used in a sentence with “metal.” I’m sure that “premium” was an adjective that didn’t readily spring to mind with owners of a bent iPhone.
One of the bright spots on the horizon is with Moto Maker, Project Ara and flexible screens. If you’re an OEM and you’re lazily making a flexible screen device that just looks like squashed phone, you’re doing it wrong.
I’m focusing this point on hardware. I know there are a lot of people who are unhappy with software related things, like OEM skins over stock Android, but there are market options for that. You don’t like TouchWiz and don’t like to root your device? Try another manufacturer. Unlike the stagnant hardware options, software has variety.
#6: The return of the Sith…erm, Windows
Microsoft is really everyone’s favorite kid to bully, but as in any good plotline, the disenfranchised may rise up. Next year will bring us Windows 10 and, if rumors are to be believed, it may spell disaster for Android OEMs.
Microsoft is skipping the Windows 9 designation and going straight for 10 in a move, it says, to illustrate how Windows 10 is a huge leap from the junk that was Windows 8. It’s a good thing Microsoft used the name 2000 and Vista before Windows XP and 7, respectively, or we’d really be getting up there in numbers…
To put it short, Windows 10 is purported to be bringing that El Dorado of device integration, one operating system across all devices with real-time connectivity. If Windows 8 was an expeditionary foray into the abyss, then Windows 10 may have finally staked a claim in that new world.
Google was ridiculed in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s for believing in such an always-connected concept. Now that its Chromebooks have begun to really hit their stride as more and more people are constantly connected to the internet, Google has two operating systems on its hands (Chrome OS and Android) and Chromebooks are typically lacking in offline usability. Google may have been, unfortunately, too far ahead of the curve.
If Microsoft can keep its business sector devotees on board, bring this one-experience package to the market and breathe life into its app store, it may make for a rocky year for Android OEMs. Especially when keeping in mind that Microsoft now owns Nokia, so it’s capable of enforcing Apple-like standards on its mobile devices.
In closing
I hope that this article is read as an opinion piece with the intent to always demand more from our Android partners and to always question where we’ve been and we’re we are going. It is not meant to be read as a treatise against market options or support of Android simplification.
The thing that makes Android great is its versatility. It has so much opportunity and adaptability! OEMs need to be careful to not grow complacent in innovation or experimentation, nor get bogged down in profits, senseless rivalry and competition, arrogance, or fruitless and needless endeavors.
Some of my thoughts may fall into the latter. Others you may like. You have a voice and you should express it! You can start in the comments below or on social media. Thanks for reading!
Come comment on this article: Top 6 Reasons Why Android OEMs Should Expect Dismal Growth In 2015
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